Slowly, the Arab Spring is sliding into the category of those events that were proclaimed anything short of the Second Coming, but will take up little more than a brief chapter in our children’s history books, and I doubt anyone but the most callous of tutors will force her students to remember it by the time our grandchildren go to college.
In some countries, the Spring petered out as fruits ripened and then wilted, as leaves turned brown and finally fell. In others, it turned into a complete perversion of what it ever was, seeking to replace secular dictatorships with no less dictatorical religious fan
There is a distinct lack of asking questions - mainly because those questions would make a rather large array of people look like total morons. Too bad, because they are total morons, and showing a few up is always a good thing.
I’m not going to go into the debate about interventionism, but rather focus on a single point: why, if all these movements were proclaimed to be great big revolutions, has it all ended in such a lacklustre way?
Not to be rude (oh yes, heck yea to be rude, actually!), but if you’re on tv commenting on foreign affairs, chances are you have no damn idea as to what a revolution is.
You have, for one, never seen one. I doubt that apart from 1989, there had been a real revolution in the First World. And if you seek to go beyond that, I’m afraid the next stop is the Boston Tea Party. Or the Paris Commune. In either case, they’re far, far behind us.
Secondly, the idea of a revolution has become value-laden - undoubtedly with a positive value. How many college kids pull that old chestnut about wanting to “change the world” in their application essays? Unthinking and unquestioning we accept that such change is for the better, whether out of a conviction that this is the Worst of All Possible Worlds or some sort of (rather ill-founded) belief in universal human goodness, whereas there is no guarantee that such change will 1) be meant to make things better, 2) will actually make things better (the latter being much less likely than the former). Hitler, Stalin, Mao and Gaddafi all wanted to change the world - look how well that one turned out in the end.
Thirdly, the Cold War era and Hollywood (and this is not a criticism against them - all fiction tends to center around a conflict and unavoidably one of them has to be the bad guy) have impressed on Western society the idea that anyone who is fighting a dictator actually likes freedom, the First Amendment, Burger King, apple pie
and Harry Reid. At least after 9/11, we ought to have learned that people fighting the baddies may well fight the baddies because they’re better at being a baddy (got that, Hollywood? Pay attention, there’ll be a quiz later). Just because the Muj’ were fighting the Soviets who hated American democracy doesn’t mean they automatically wished for American democracy. During the entire Afghan mess (the one back in the 1980s), everyone got away without ever asking what motivates the Muj’ and what their beef is with the Russians. Their problem wasn’t the fact that the Soviets operated a fundamentally unjust system, and did even that quite badly. Their problem was that the Soviets operated a bad system that was secular and bad, rather than their preferred option, which is Shariah-based and bad. Had that fact received the attention it deserved back then, it would have been an instance of the bee landing on the nettle - someone would get stung, and you truly didn’t care which one.
Boundless enthusiasm for just about everything revolutionary ended us up in the mess that was Odyssey Dawn - quite apart from having a conspicuously stripperesque name, it ended with what was by all descriptions a political defeat. Gaddafi got whacked, yes - but Libya remains about as stable as a Soviet nuclear power plant at vodka o’clock, and is well on its way to be the newest addition to the failed state register. It took almost a decade of US military presence in Iraq to mollify and eliminate some of the Shi’a-Sunni grudges built up by Saddam’s preferential treatment of the Sunni - what Harvard-educated idiot thought a few bombing runs are going to end in peace and jolly hockey sticks in a country where people working for a deranged despot’s secret police may share an apartment block with their very own victims? The Libyan bombing run was very politically correct. We didn’t stay. We most certainly didn’t want to impress any unpopular views, like the one that democracy is cool and flogging women isn’t, on them. We sure as heck didn’t touch their oil. With the newsroom of the New York Times pacified, it would have been a good idea to actually figure out what’s next. What came next instead is not doing very much at all and handing over the whole shebang to NATO, which couldn’t wait for the rebel leaders to finally sign some random chit that says Libya is now liberated and they can go home. They did so. Tl;dr: we can’t even properly go into a country and fix things. Odyssey Dawn was the equivalent of reacting to Hitler’s invasion of Poland by flying a few sorties, then, upon a bunch of random Poles signing a letter saying ‘actually, all’s well’, going home.
What has the so-called ‘revolution’ achieved? Well, there’s a National Transitional Council now. It’s chaired by - watch this - Gaddafi’s justice minister. Yes, really. More tellingly, the dude has a zebibah the size of a 50p coin. The vice president is a human rights ambulance chaser. There’s a Senussi in the lot, with a claim to the Throne of Libya (I don’t even know if they have one, seeing as in their entire modern history, they have had all of one single king). Between March and November, they went through three and a half defence minsters. And this whole farce is sponsored overtly by Qatar and some other Arab countries, and not so overtly by God only knows who. Snapping up the displaced and distressed amidst a disaster was always a favoured tactic of Sunni extremists (viz. the radical Sunni madrasas set up in Afghan refugee camps in Pakistan during the Afghan-Russian war, virtually entirely staffed and paid for by Saudi Arabia).
We’ve had the Arab Spring. It got us: a dead Gaddafi, and otherwise a whole lot of nothing. Egypt remains a crisis spot, as does Syria. Libya is on its way from a state run badly by a deranged megalomaniac despot to a state run badly by a set of somewhat less deranged but more cynical petty despots. When history sits in judgment, the Arab Spring will hardly go down as the revolution that changed it all. And that, alone, should temper our love affair with revolutions. The Taliban came to power by way of a revolution, and so did the Bolsheviks. Heck, the archetypical revolution, that of the French in 1789, ended in various assorted collections of psychopaths trying to kill one another in the name of the Revolution, and more absurd stuff. It is substance, not form, that matters. A revolution with all the fortitude it has, mainly made by fired up young people (same goes for war, sadly), is but a hollow shell lest that fortitude is filled by sound principles and a good ideas as to what to do once power is gained. The Libyans fought hard to seize power and get Gaddafi out - perhaps so hard that they spent no time at all figuring out what to do once they did end up winning. And that’s a bad, bad sign.
I’ve learned over my long career in both the Regular Army and National Guard, is that, no matter how Billy Badass you are, there are three things that are guaranteed:
Someone is ALWAYS tougher than you, and as much as you may talk down to people whom you think are not as high speed as you are, you’re eating someone else’s dust.
You’re probably overcompensating for something. (I know it’s a big word, look it up.)
- I’ve never met ANYONE who was tougher or more high speed than a random bullet, IED, or shrapnel.
How DOES that kool aide taste?” —Power Point Ranger (all typos and spelling mistakes are his - but so is the wisdom and truth of this quote!)
Should be familiar to anyone exposed to that crap. Also FISH (Fighting In Someone’s House).
Fish famously goes well with CHIPS: Creating Havoc In Populated Streets. Usually practised in the jolly fake Bavarian town, or, more recently, in the fake Afghan village, at Copehill Down.
…lies a country we really don’t know shit about. And that’s a scary fact when we consider the immense strategic importance of Pakistan - and how little we know about how they work.
I don’t claim or pretend to know any more - we’re all lost in this together. What has always intrigued me is the sheer amount of double-talk that comes out of that country. An odd fact, because as individuals, Pakistanis are probably some of the most honest, honourable and dependable people I know. So how, and why, do we get the sheer madness that comes out of Pakistan?
Take the current craze. Some photos show three aircraft at Shamsi airbase, from which professional, highly trained geospatial analysts (read: Wikileaks readers with an outdated copy of Jane’s) deduced they’re Predators. No, wait, they’re Reapers! I remember when that photo came out, people actually debated whether an almost perfectly orthogonal satellite photo showed a Reaper or a Predator (for the ungeospatialintelligentially inclined: the Reaper is about 9ft longer and has an 18ft longer wingspan - unless you have several objects nearby on ground of which you exactly know the length and a very high resolution image (no, not talking Google Maps), it’s impossible to precisely distinguish between the two), and immediately concluded there’s a CIA black op going on. Black ops, even. Plurals make things scarier.
Then Sen. Feinstein declared that there are Predators in Pakistan, she saw it on National Geographic, mountain lions and lynxes and shit, all scary stuff. Pakistan generally reacted to this by
shitting bricks doing not very much at all.
Then a couple of years later, 24 poor Pakistani soldiers get gunned down by a NATO joint fuckup, and the Islamabad government kicks the US out of… Shamsi airbase.
What the fuck?
They don’t kick them out altogether from everywhere, or strike back or something. No, they pull a file out of the Grudge Drawer and start pissing about something that happened eternities ago and they refused to give an ordinary shit about back then. Quite probably because they don’t have enough evidence that substantiates it was NATO forces that killed the Pakistani soldiers.
Or, worse: no evidence that the Pakistani soldiers were innocent about the whole shebang. The Pakistani-Afghan border is the closest this world currently comes to the Wild West. There are no laws. Islamabad is far away, and as a general rule, not much of a crap is given about central authority. Law usually comes from the barrel of a gun. Pakistan always had a problem with centralising control, and by ‘always’, I mean for-frickin’-ever. We’re talking the country whose intelligence agency, the ISI, was basically entirely run by Taliban/AQ sympathisers up until the big reshuffle post-9/11. Without disrespect to the dead, the chance that those armed gentlemen were in fact the soldiers of a slightly different army is pretty high. We’re good at friendly fire, but the Pakistanis also know that if you give the slightest indication that you’re up for a dance, you’ll get Reapered. Or Hellfired. Or whatever the proper verb is, I am sure Sen. Feinstein knows. I’ll let you know once I finished digging up her underwear drawer.
So Pakistan does things in a strange way. I don’t envy them - they have a difficult balance to keep up. After 9/11, Dubya asked them whether they preferred cleaning up their act to being visited by the Marine Corps. They chose cleanup - but no Pakistani government could really talk as harshly with Muslim extremists as the US wanted them to. And so this is the name of the game: Islamabad will have to appease two opposites. Right now, we’re ‘down’. Tomorrow, we may well be up. Heck, well before the 15 days given to pack up their stuff expire. NATO forces may well receive an invitation back to Shamsi.
Bottom line: when Pakistan says something, have a Gimlet. And another. And a good nap. See what they’re saying when you wake. If it’s still unfavourable, well, at least you had some booze and sleep, which will stand you in good stead for the next five days of packing up all that
Predator Reaper kit.
Right now, though, I wouldn’t start packing.
…of what frankly may be bloody everything, the thing about large industrial facilities is that they usually have their own SCADA ICS (in human: the software that controls the whole shebang) so there is no way to corroborate whether that’s actually an intrusion proof or someone having fun with photoshop, but I digress.
The real point here is twofold. One, critical public infrastructure is shittily protected. Note I said public - had this happened at a private company, the board of directors would by now be in the backroom committing seppuku. The way things are, someone may get an interview without coffee.
Two, there will always be a risk that critical utilities are taken over by hackers. That’s not as dreadful as it sounds, really. The question is, 1) why aren’t we doing it to the baddies, 2) why don’t we have a book on what to do in such a situation? There is no reason why every single point within the infrastructure of a large industrial facility couldn’t be set to sign & verify every packet of information, so that any interference would raise an alarm, at which point systems would go full manual.
Preparedness, folks. It never gets old.
Starbuck has a link today to a pretty good article by Matthew Levitt in the JISA: It’s the Ideology, Stupid!. CT efforts are, Levitt writes,
tactically strong. We are well-positioned to tap the right phones, carry out surveillance of the right targets, and as a result we have a truly remarkable track record of preventing attacks (though some, like the shoe bomber, underwear bomber and Times Square bomber, simply failed without being foiled). Where we remain inexcusably weak, however, is in the realm of strategic counterterrorism, or counter-radicalization.
I’m not quite sure I’ve heard this expressed this clearly, but Levitt most definitely deserves praise for pointing out the big weakness of our COIN/CT strategy. The problem is, we don’t have one.
We don’t have a coherent narrative. We have COIN tactics, which are good at solving small-scale problems. Partly, this seems to reflect a reluctance to engage with substantive issues like faith, self-determination and how other people run their affairs (which usually ends with “…should be none of our concern”). More so, however, it reflects the day-to-day nature of COIN. We have wonderful strategies to survive until Friday afternoon, but nothing about not having to expend money and manpower to fighting insurgencies. The reality is that we understand how an insurgency operates, but we do not understand what an insurgency is. We think in strategies that may at best ensure peace in a village or a small region, but not a comprehensive plan. What we lack is a coherent narrative of counter-terrorism. The 9/11 attacks delivered the foundation of sorts to such a narrative - COIN and CT are important because they keep people from flying planes into our buildings. That’s not enough, however, for the wider narrative. In our culture, offensive war is ‘not on’. We don’t have a war department but a ministry of defence. Creating wars is not acceptable socially. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing (or at all!), but it has impressed itself onto military thinking - all our wars are defensive. Even OIF was conceptualised as a primarily defensive action with the purpose of getting rid of Saddam’s WMDs threatening the US and its allies in the region. And so no military thought that looked at these wars as what they were from a non-political, unspinned perspective has had the chance to gain traction. In reality, these conflicts could have been approached as being principally about counterterrorism and the latter being about kicking the crap out of AQ, no apologies made. The reluctance to make war on another state is understandable - but the reluctance to persecute, track down and kill AQ, regardless of whether they are a current threat to the US, is less so. How we fight is determined by how we think about our place in the annals of history, how we think of ourselves remembered: as a bully or as a liberator, as the warmongers or the brave fighters against an organisation that is, for the lack of a better word, a collection of thoroughly evil motherfuckers. Too afraid of being remembered as the unwanted peacemaker, the West has never developed a strategy that, in clear terms, defined those social and cultural structures that spawn terrorism, and attack them. We don’t have an anti-terrorism strategy because we don’t have a way to tell the Saudis that civilised people don’t ban women from driving, and a fortiori don’t stone them. We don’t have an anti-terrorism strategy because we’re totally ok with beheadings and hands cut off because it’s their culture (read, we’re not willing to actually give them a bollocking).
Tactics can be just about anything. Strategy, however, calls for a wider perspective. A wider perspective calls for actions that go beyond the narrow ambit of warfare and spread into politics, trade, foreign relations, diplomacy, culture, and so on. World War II didn’t need much of a strategy. “Kill Nazis, blow up tanks, shoot down planes, liberate village, drink wine, go home, get medal” was a pretty good prescription for warfighting. That’s because the Nazis were little more than an army and a huge sodding bureaucracy. AQ is different. AQ and the whole phenomenon of terrorism goes beyond war. It is also a social phenomenon, an economic one, a cultural one, and so on. It is, in short, a narrative. It is a story into which more and more young Middle Eastern men, feeling disenfranchised (as young men always do, seeing as you rarely get the moon on a stick when you’re 24) and easily approached by terrorists who give them purpose and a cause, seek to write themselves. It is probably worth looking back at one of the much neglected phenomena: the fake terror cell. Franz Fuchs, for all intents and purposes the textbook version of the lone terror loonie, claimed after his arrest to have belonged to the Bajuwarische Befreiungsarmee, a totally fictitious terror organisation. Why? He had nothing to gain from it. Nothing, except a purpose. Man cannot live without purpose. Man cannot live without a narrative - without knowing what his role is, and what the play is about. Those who don’t have one will seek out one. Those who can offer one will always have the personnel they need, for whatever nonsense they need it (including suicide bombing). And those who wish to combat them cannot merely shoot down the actors. Kill the actors, and the playwright writes new ones. The West has to develop its own narrative, and counter the opposition’s. There is a distinct shortfall in that area -and so what Levitt accurately identified as a lack of strategy is not the illness, it’s a symptom. We don’t have a strategy because we don’t have a narrative from which to create one.
From Julian Lindley-French’s blog, a good insight as to why Libya isn’t necessarily bound to be a repeat of the Afghan/Iraqi fiasco:
And here’s the crux; Libya is also neither Afghanistan nor Iraq. Libyan human leadership capital is far better than that of either Iraq or Afghanistan. There is a middle class unlike in Afghanistan where it had been destroyed by the Soviets. Sectarianism of the sort we saw in Iraq is far less of a factor. Libya’s infrastructure has suffered far less damage than that suffered by Afghanistan and Iraq and with high-grade oil Libya can afford its own future.
I agree with Lindley-French’s broader point, but not with what the really important difference is. Disfavoured recently in the analysis of international relations, there has been little attention paid to comparing the traditions of statehood in the three states. In Libya, there has been a state of some description since the Carthaginian hegemony across the shores of North Africa established around 500 BCE. So for the last two and a half millennia, with the brief intermezzo of the ineffective Byzantine rule after the fall of Rome and before the Arab conquest. Carthage gave way to Romans by 74 BC who then channeled over into Byzantium who were kicked out around the mid-600s by the Arabs who then were supplanted by the Ottoman Empire who then were kicked out by the Italians who then were in turn chased away by 1951, when Libya declared independence. Compare that to Afghanistan, where the brief periods of united statehood are essentially minute anomalies of a history of virtually exclusively tribal society spanning 6000 years. Whereas Libya is about changing the locus of power in a state that has been in existence for half a century and in other political contexts has existed for much, much longer than that, Afghanistan was about creating something that has never really existed in reality, and Iraq was about doing away with as much of a fundamentally broken and corrupt state structure as it was possible. With nation–states losing control of the central position of analysis in international relations, analysis runs the risk of ignoring how important traditions of statehood are in examining the prospects of a political transformation.
Imagine you have just been asked to write the screenplay of the feature length film about the political transition in Libya. You have all the money, all the actors, all the resources at your disposal. All you need to figure out at this point, is where the story starts–and where it ends. This opens the door to a significant influx of a form of bias that has long been much neglected in thinking about the Libyan issue.
Western commentators have been brought up in an intellectual tradition of individualism. In the Western civilisation, when things happen, they happen because individuals make it happen. Just imagine the ancient Greek epics: they are not about impersonal forces and how those forces clash, they are about individuals. At the centre of every epic is a hero, and it is him, the individual hero, who is the focal point of the epic. Even when the hero encounters a conflict with abstract ideas, these ideas are personified to shift them onto level of conflict intelligible to an individualistic worldview. Odysseus doesn’t do battle with abstract ideas like a reluctance to go home from the Trojan war that has shaped his existence for a decade or his infidelity, he fights personal emanations of these concepts in the physical world. To our individualistic intellectual tradition, fighting a Cyclops is more intelligible than the warrior from the fierce realities of the battlefield to the time society. And so, from our earliest days, we are raised to see things to happen because a person made them happen. As a result, any narrative we tell, we tell framed in terms of individuals.
So where would your Libya movie end? In all likelihood, it would end in a dramatic scene of Gaddafi’s capture. Much in the same vein, if we would ask Hollywood to give us a narrative of Iraq or Afghanistan, it would centre not around the abstract ideas that are involved in transition into a democracy, that on the conflict with an individual in the middle – the capture of Saddam or Bin Laden. This bias is so strong that even with the best intentions, the planners of the intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan were facing a significant obstacle: every single idea of why things happen that has been built up in them through their education in Western, individualistic societies has told them that things happen because people make them happen, and if the responsible people are eliminated, the more complex issues will resolve themselves. Therefore, the main priority would be to capture of Saddam and bin Laden, rather than meticulous focus on the political issues that are involved in managing the transition. This bias would be duly credited for being the source of much of the Coalition forces’ inability to to create a long-term, sustainable future for Iraq and Afghanistan.
In analysing the current transition in Libya, our Western worldview is likely to take us down the same path. What is wrong with Libya is seen all too frequently as not being a matter of a wrong political system, badly run on bad principles, but as the product of a single person: Gaddafi. It is true that Gadaffi is not merely the figurehead but also the linchpin of the system. However, what is wrong with Libya goes significantly beyond the matter of one individual, and the risk that lies in conceiving of the entire issue not as creating a sustainable political transition in Libya but as first and foremost getting rid of the figurehead of the old regime is that it will ultimately achieve will be no more than replacing Gaddafi while not replacing the system that allowed him to keep Libya firmly in his grasp. What such an intervention will ultimately achieve will be replacing Gaddafi without creating guarantees that whoever end up replacing him will not be able to follow in his path. And so, another inchoate transition will yield not much more than sacrifices by the people in vain, expenditure by Western forces in vain and enduring instability.
What must ultimately be understood is that it is indeed individuals - their aspirations, dreams, hopes, flaws and virtues - that drive the world. But the political transition of a country goes beyond individuals. A fortiori, it goes beyond getting rid of a particularly loathsome individual. What it needs to achieve is to put in place the adequate ideas and join them up with the right people. And so, as long as the predominant idea of transition in Libya remains “anyone but Gadaffi”, the future of that country remains uncertain. Right now, our understanding of the processes on the ground is patchy at best. It is actually not necessarily as a result of lacking intelligence capabilities and assets, but as a result of the organic development of political shifts. Right now, everything is up for grabs. The West clearly committed itself against Gaddafi, which in principle is definitely correct. The challenge now for the West, commentators and and politicians alike, will be to articulate an alternative that goes beyond “anyone but Gadaffi”. There is precious little in evidence of concerted efforts to detach oneself from the old biases and Hollywood prejudices in which the rebels that fight the forces of evil dictator are, by definition, seen as the “good guys. If the West is to assist the Libyan people with full awareness of the responsibility that entails, it must create a new narrative that will sever ties with the narrative that has consistently dominated Western–Libyan political interactions for the last four decades. That narrative has been spun around the person of Gaddafi, who, in all likelihood, will next be seen emerging from a bunker flanked by the special forces who captured him. For what it’s worth, the story of Gaddafi is over. The longer we insist on allowing him to linger in the middle of our focus, the longer we remain exposed to the risk of ignoring significant, possibly even threatening, developments that take place outside the narrow focus.
Call centres are one of those things in the modern world that we’d rather do without. That view isn’t exactly shared by companies, so we won’t be spared ‘Hi, my name is Cindy, how can I help you?’ and ‘Your call may be recorded for quality assurance purposes’ anytime soon. Well, believe it or not, there’s a lot you learn in warfare big and small, gunny and non-gunny, that may help you get out of a call centre experience without a major stroke. I had a run-in with my bank’s call centre today, after they left me up Shit Creek, Pra Nang Province, Bumfuck Egypt, sans paddle. Some good advice:
- Are you angry? ANGRY? HULK SMASH ANGRY? Good. It’ll motivate you and keep you going, and trust me, you’re gonna need endurance. It’s a war of attrition and you’ll need a lot of endurance to win it, and nothing gives you endurance like a good stroke to your beta adrenergic receptors by some juice from the brothers on the top of your kidney. But… Going into battle is a stupid idea. You need to let it go. In this business, you’ll have to talk to a lot of people you’d love to smash up and befriend them. You’re going to be big brother, counsellor, friend, father confessor and the strict boarding school matron who sent you to bed at 8pm and told you that if you keep reading War and Peace under your cover, you’ll get the Battle of Borodino from your housemistress tomorrow in live technicolor. And so, you need to get rid of your anger. Sit down in a comfy chair, and close your eyes. Feel the anger in your body, and try to draw it from your body into the point at the bottom of your sternum. Feel it leave the edges of your body and collect into a hot ball of rage at the bottom of your sternum. When you feel like it’s almost ready to burst, let it slowly go with a slow breath, and feel it leave your body as you exhale. I tend to imagine it as exhaling a sort of red, toxic mist. It takes practice, but you cannot, I repeat, you cannot achieve anything with blind rage.
- **Cindy isn’t your enemy.* Cindy, who actually may well be called something boring and un-sexy like Hildegard or Gudrun, has done nothing to you. There’s no point in screaming her down. Be polite. “Hi Cindy, my name is Chris. How are you today?”. They’re probably bored out of their minds, and a polite voice and some small-talk helps you connect. Connecting over the phone is so much more difficult to most people whose training is mainly about how to do it in person, and you’re liable to do it wrong. Still, keep trying. Don’t befriend her too much, just be polite. Explain to her that you need to talk to her manager, because it’s about something rather unpleasant. Most call centre drones hate their managers, and will be more than eager to land some shit on their necks. Decide if they’re your target - if you want to achieve something minor, that may well be the case. If not, keep escalating, with the same trick - you have a problem, and you don’t want to load it on their neck, let’s pester their superior. And so on.
- Dominate rapidly. Don’t start begging. Your first exchange of sentences sets the scene, and you will have neither time time nor the way of proof to change anything about it. What scene do you want to build? Do you want to build a scene in which you’re asking for help, or where you’re offering help? Go for the latter. Your target should know from the first second onwards that it’s him who’s in poo-poo land, and not you. You’re his lifeline. You’re going to pull him out of the shite, but you need his cooperation.
- You don’t have a problem. We have a problem. You and your target have a common problem. Your target is in trouble, and you, as a good friend, are going to help him get out of it. You’re sharing his problem, rather than making him share yours. You didn’t get your internet connected/dripping boiler repaired/cat neutered/test results mailed/whatever. A fair few bored managers will say ‘how the heck is that my problem?’. Don’t get to the point where they ask that question. Start out clearly, asserting that there is a problem, and it’s mainly his.
- Don’t threaten, it’s puerile and a sign of weakness. Just keep a gentle atmosphere of fear going. “So Steve, we’ve got this problem about my boiler - listen, I’m trying to help you here, let’s solve this together. But you’ve got to throw me a line.”
- We few, we lucky few, we band of brothers. “You know how these things are” - and “Yeah, I know how these things are”. If you can credibly pull it off, feel free to tell him you’ve done this kind of job before. I’ve built hundreds of networks from small to large, so I can pull it off with my internet provider, but I know literally nothing about boilers except how to blow them up.
- You’re friends, not buddies or mates. We live in this daft society where we call everyone a buddy or a mate or other term of endearment. Like fear, friendship is best expressed by behaviour, not by daft words. I’ve seen people build this amazing friendly rapport, then fuck it up by calling the target ‘mate’. Boom. Out of the window.
- Have clear aims, but don’t be reluctant to compromise. Not too reluctant, anyway. Overshooting my be sensible if you can pull it off credibly, but if you want your internet to be connected tomorrow morning, telling the chap that you’re gonna lose your job unless it’s connected by 1800 today is not going to go well. Quite apart from the fact that it makes him feel like he’s got the upper hand.
- Stroke your target’s ego. Give him control without control over you. This is very difficult and probably one of the harder things in this area, at least in my view. There is simply no useful, paradigmatic way to describe this. “Steve, you’re a big man. You’re in charge. I mean, you’re Assistant Manager of Networking Operations! You can make this happen.” The fella is probably the corporate equivalent of a Petty Officer 3rd Class, but you’ve got to learn to make him feel like the captain of the USS Nimitz. He’s a superior officer. BUT: he’s superior where he is. He runs his flock of drones. Do not even hint at the fact that he’s in any way superior to you. Keep your rapport going, and be sure to keep the ‘scene’ going, too. You’re helping him.
- You may well cost the poor sod his job, or at least get him demoted or reprimanded, depending on what you’re asking. First and foremost, if you’re uncomfortable with that, then by all means get the heck out of the kitchen. This isn’t the Peace Corps and you’re sure as heck not going to gain preferential entry through the Gates of Heaven for what you’re doing. Let’s be clear: you’re using people to achieve what you want, you may well be putting them in harm’s way, and even if you’re developing them as assets long-term, you will at some point drop them. You pretend to be their friend, you lie, cheat, deceive and do other sorts of nasty things, and whether it’s for small or big, you better be damn sure that what you’re getting out of this will be worth carrying the stain on your soul for the rest of your life. Every target gets the chickens at some point. This is where you step up to the big leagues. Your bond of trust must overcome his fears. This is where your work so far gets tested. “If my supervisor finds out, I’ll get into trouble.” “Heck no, Steve! When I worked at MegaPhone, I did this all the time for my mates and my supe never minded - he did the same stuff when he was in your seat!” Clearly your bond is going to be stronger if you can act on his mind as well as his heart, you’ll be in a stronger position. Beats having to say ‘nah, I don’t really think you will’ or ‘yeah, but no risk, no fun!’. You’ve gotta be an ace to pull those off. Heck, I have no idea how I’d even go about doing it.
- Be grateful, but keep the scene! A lot of people tend to drop their rapport when they’ve got what they wanted, which makes the target feel used (which they are, but there’s no need to make them feel like it, too), or drop the scene, which not only makes sure you’ll never be able to use that person ever again or get anything more out of him, but also that he might well change his mind to do what you want him to do in the future. Endurance game, remember?
- Thank the chap, but remember the last point. He didn’t do you a solid. Rather, you solved a problem, which was largely his, together. “Hey, Steve, I’m so glad I got to talk to you rather than someone else, I’m really glad we managed to sort this out together! And hey, good luck with that customer service departmental bowling match next week, okay?”.
As said, this is in many ways a short guide to going to Hell, and if you’re in bed with the Devil, you’re not going to get bonus points from the Upstairs Department. The best thing you can do if you’re actually forced to deploy any of this - whether it’s against your bank, your ISP, your boiler repairman or a terrorist - is to use it as little as possible, be as nice as possible and do as little damage as possible. I would normally say good luck, but as said, I’d rather you treated this as educational material.
There are a million ways of getting people to help you. Most of them do end with ‘and I am now going to Hell, I’ll see you later, please notify the burns unit’. This is one, and one of the more harmless. It does not involve raising your voice, and a lot of people think that that makes it somehow superior to a good old honest rage attack, but as you can see, there’s a lot of moral issues about it.
I’ve never experienced toxic leadership. Then again, I’ve never tried to eat or inhale any of my leaders.
Jokes aside, the matter of toxic leadership has become pretty central, following the Army’s announcement that it is not putting up any longer with E-5s to O-7s (a surprisingly high rank actually!) bullying their subordinates under the guise of leadership. Let me, before any sensible consideration, put up three quotes that are in some way or other relevant:
“Attitude reflects leadership, captain” — Big Ju, to team captain Gerry Bertier in Remember the Titans (video)
We’re here to preserve democracy, not to practise it. — Gene Hackman as Capt Ramsey in Crimson Tide (video)
Let me start with a provocative assertion: I’m young and reasonably junior. Therefore, I know more about leadership than older folks.
Now that you’re sufficiently agitated, let me explain. An general knows a lot about what it’s like being a leader. Having gone through a long career, I guess, he has had leadership responsibilities from a squad up to an entire army or a branch of one of the armed forces. He has a history of being a leader, and has experiences of what it is like to lead. His experience is about being a leader.
A young ell-tee, however, knows leadership. Well, not entirely, but he is learning it. And learning leadership is, really, knowing leadership. It is a radically different knowledge from the general’s. It’s not looking back at how one has been a leader for forty years, but examining oneself and one’s actions critically and trying to figure out what the hell this leadership, toxic or not, is. For everyone gets a lot of leadership talk pumped into them, but nobody can tell you what it is in a quick oneliner after which you’ll exactly know what to do and when. And that’s a good thing. It means that leadership is something way too complicated to express. In a way, the current leadership culture sends a clear message: if you’ve ‘got it’, you’ll be able to figure out what leadership is, and if you’ve got a problem discerning it in yourself, well, you may not really officer material, have you thought about a job in the Pay Corps?
So leadership for a junior officer is not looking over a distinguished past but being shit-scared and trying to discern what the heck leadership really is. He doesn’t know about what being a leader is like because he’s hardly been one for minutes. But he knows that painful, arduous and often painstakingly shite process of sitting on the ground with the map after he has dismissed the Sgt and the troops and worrying himself till his pants are full about whether he’s taken the right decision (and if he’s lucky, this is a peacetime exercise, not something where he may end up having to write letters to the mothers and wives of those men. And at that point, he knows leadership. Not what it feels like, but what it actually is.
I’ve been in my fair share of leadership positions, and I’d lie if I said I loved all of them, or even most of them. Some, in fact most, came with unpleasant things attached, and eventually, you’ll think twice. When I told my friend and mentor, a former teacher of mine, about this, he looked me in the eyes and said: “THIS is the point when you HAVE to look for more leadership positions. Because, son, you’re growing up”.
And growing up is a big show. It’s not about promotions and the number of stripes on your epaulet or the assignments or the number of people you’re in charge of. What it’s about is this: you are engaged in a near life-long process of discerning what that word they drummed into your ears for four years means: ‘leadership’. You didn’t get an answer. You got a question. The answer is up to you to find.’
And that’s the miracle of leadership: there is no touchstone of good leadership. There are small edges of almost always correct and almost always bad actions, and then there’s a huge penumbra. And you then are in this penumbra and are to figure out what to do - and all you’ve got in your toolkit are your past thoughts about the matter and your gut feelings.
As I enthuse, though, about this miracle, I must not forget that when a discernment of anything is a human process, it is as good as humans are. Or as bad. Crikey, now that’s bad news.
And the result are people who, for whatever reason (and mind you, there is a difference between reasons and justifications: every justification is a reason but not every reason is a justification - only good ones are!), developed into bad leaders. Some of them become a particular kind of bad, capricious leader, and Jean Lipman-Blumen, a professor of organisational behaviour (that’s strange for someone with no psychology degree!) and ‘public policy’, whatever-in-the-name-of-dog-that-is (seeing as a ‘policy’ requires a group of people to accept it, otherwise it’s just an individual habit or practice, I don’t quite know what ‘public policy’ actually means - in practice, it’s basically ‘talking about politics, but this tome not so much like someone who understands it’).
Clearly, I’m in hot, raging love with Ms Blumen, as the utter lack of any sarcasm in any of the above lines should prove conclusively. She’s not only got a very sexy array of awards from places like the International Leadership Organisation (I so wish I could be a fly on the wall at one of their leader-y meetings!), but also, very regrettably, popularised the term ‘toxic leaders’, originally invented by Marcia Lynn Whicker and described in Toxic Leaders: When Organizations go Bad. She’s also made good money out of writing a book about it, titled The Allure of Toxic Leaders: Why we follow destructive bosses &c. &c. - I had to abbreviate the subtitle because its infinite length and sentential structure just stretched on and on and on endlessly and made me wonder whether this is a badly-done self-help book or something that wandered over from the Children’s Literature (Ages 2-4) section.
Meanwhile, 7800 miles from the office of this colossus of leadership in pleasant Claremont, CA, known jovially to locals as the ‘City of Trees and PhDs’, 24-year-olds make life and death decisions.
In Lipman-Blumen’s book, toxic leadership is not bad leadership, it is a particular kind of bad leadership. So far, so good. Then she goes into an endless wrestle to try to say what she wants and can’t - namely, toxic leadership is ‘functionally bad leadership we think is morally bad’. Her examples, other than basically being a walk through society to pick on as many of the GOP’s classic constituents as she can while still maintaining her guise as an academic (and really, I wouldn’t involve politics in this if she hadn’t brought it in, along with what appears to me to be a Jesuitic level of hatred of corporate-dom), are examples of leadership where quite apart from mismanagement (in fact, occasionally in face of functionally correct management, a fact she occasionally ignores) would constitute a morally wrongful act.
So what her long-winded stuff boils down to (OTC cadets who’ve been given the book as reading but don’t want to read it, look here): don’t be an asshole in a leadership position. No more, no less.
So basically, this be the verse:
Don’t be an asshole.
Keep firing assholes. (Starbuck’s Corollary) 1
The latter I hereby designate, in honour of the man who expressed it with such incisive clarity, Starbuck’s Corollary. This should be a priority for all armed forces. Heck, it should be priority for Wal-Mart, except normally, they do fire assholes once their assholeness becomes generally damaging (as someone who evidently never set foot in a corporate boardroom or had to stack shelves, she evidently doesn’t know that in business, assholes do not last long — I should know, Tesco’s fired me after two weeks).
Whether it’s a horror that we’ve gotten to the point that a) we need to tell people not to be assholes in leadership positions instead of flogging a few of them publicly (yes, toxic oh so toxic), b) you can earn fat bucks writing a ‘fine, scholarly book’ of 320 pages (I’ve been in academia for over half a decade but I’ve yet to see a ‘fine and scholarly* book that fit into 320 pages cum bibliography, but I digress) is an entirely separate issue and one that I’ll leave to grumble about in quiet when I have one of my Daily Mail-reader-ish Moral Outrage days. The point is that it is an issue currently, and that’s all that’s up on the table. Unfortunately you can’t make fat royalties off two simple lines, but just in case someone in the MoD gets a massive injection of pure pharmaceutical grade common sense and orders this to be put on the wall of everyone O-3 upwards, we’ll not only get fat royalties for it, but also better armed forces. Without making cadets read that long-winded anti-corporate diatribe. Here. Me, with the help of Starbuck’s tweet, summarised it in two lines. Betcha feel like a fool for having shelled out £13-00 of your hard-earned cash for it! Ask for a refund.
Now, in an ideal world, we’d just take these rules, and put them on the wall and implement them. This being the military, that’s exactly what’s not gonna happen. What is going to happen is the whole toxic leader stuff making its way to Whitehall and the Pentagon, where civil servants and the odd high-ranking officer, caught up in the latest wave of ‘building links’ to social sciences and humanities (there was an age when the average staff/flag grade officer spoke Latin and Greek — curiously, we didn’t need ‘building links’ and other bullshite back then) and injecting the whole toxic leader stuff into the already overloaded set of leadership mantras. Most of which, of course, are of as much use in actual engagements as a chocolate teapot. But because this is defence, there’ll also be some poor sod who will be tasked to make PowerPoint slides on the subject, which then people who really ought to do something far more sensible will have to endure, thereby steadily working their way towards the 1000 Hours Powerpoint badge, the majority of whom will exit either with a bunch of doodles on a notepad, or a big ‘whut?’ on their face. Never mind, because two weeks later, an equally soporific seminar will be held by an outside civilian contractor, for more than what the chaps in the room earn in a month. This may even feature ‘activities that encourage leadership’, and inevitably the ‘walk beyond the line’ and ‘jump off the table and they’ll catch you’ bollocks will be featured. To grown men and women.
Thank effing heck I am a civilian. At least when someone wants to do that kind of nonsense to me, I can say ‘fuck off’ without being sent to the brig for insubordination. Might, of course, get fired, but no risk - no fun!
So let me expand the above - Chris’ Three Cardinal Rules of Leadership:
Don’t be an asshole. - Chris’ Cardinal Rule
Keep firing assholes. - Starbuck’s Corollary
For Thor’s sake, don’t send your people on stupid seminars on toxic leadership.
They could always use the money that would have gone to the seminar for a great communal pissup. Which may or may not end Tailhook-esque, and may or may not end up seeing the remainder of the money being spent on a sexual harassment awareness seminar, but that’s for a different post.
1 Starbuck himself informs me that the Keep Firing Assholes - one of the more memorable Spaceballsisms (video) - in the context of, well, real Majors-who-may-not-be-named-but-are-assholes originates from a post on the Iron Dice blog (unfortunately, I can’t tell which author exactly). I am grateful for the correction and apologise to the original authors, I hope they’ll be placated by my next post ;)
…but truly had to vent this one: I bloody hate the packing that comes with a transfer.
To describe Wilton Park in one sentence? It is British soft power at its best.
Wilton Park is how Britain likes to see itself and how others like to see Britain: a country house surrounded by a carefully crafted pastoral landscape. A wide horizon, a good westerly wind, and, well, the occasional splash of rain. Host to the world - and to the open, intense, and fair debate about it. Classy, not glitzy. Eminent not only because of its history but because of its contribution to today’s problem-solving. Provincial and cosmopolitan at the same time. Old-fashioned yet informal, traditional yet deeply concerned about the future.
For anybody with an interest in how a nation can demonstrate its confidence and impress its guests, while simultaneously serving others and the greater good, Wilton Park is the benchmark. This is how it should be done. And with a breakfast like this, what can go wrong? Germany, my own country, has no equivalent (neither place nor breakfast).” —
Jan Techau, director of Carnegie Europe, on the FCO blog (more here, have a barf bag ready).
Now I’m not reading the FCO’s blog for incisive commentary (indeed I don’t really read it for starters), but this kind of saccharine self-polishing is amazing even by their standards. I’m more putting this up here as an example of the nonsense that passes from the mouths of people in the ‘diplomacy by cultural understanding and building dialogue’ biz these days.
If there’s a shark relevance, it’s that people capable of writing crap like this should be fed to one.
This is an idea I’ve been taught in days of yore (something that makes me look way older than I actually am, but it seems like a previous life!), and which, while originally invented in the context of small scale conflicts, is with the odd alteration something worth thinking about in the context of conflicts and disputes of any size, kind or environ. I’ve been reminded of this by Sgt Rory Miller’s excellent book, Facing the Unexpected (which will have a rave review of its own here in a bit), the sequel to his equally worth-reading Meditations on Violence, which makes a virtually identical point.
120 seconds is the half-life of adrenaline. An aggressor steadily pickles his brain in adrenaline, preparing for confrontation, even if he initiates it (some people appear to have misunderstood adrenaline being the fight-or-flight hormone as being only relevant for fight when it’s an alternative to flight - this is not so).
Adrenaline is the immediate messenger of aggression. A number of chemicals contribute to aggression as a long term process (an example being testosterone, which increases the propensity to aggression), but when it comes to the fight, it’s adrenaline that does the heavy lifting. It has, mainly, two purposes: facilitate superior fighting capacity by, first, facilitating a stronger fight response, second, enhancing injury-resilience.
The first is accomplished by four synergistic effects: cardiac, respiratory, muscles and metabolism. Adrenaline is an inotrope and chronotrope, meaning it increases the contractility, and so output per heartbeat, of the heart muscle, as well as the number of contractions given time (aka heart rate). It is a smooth muscle relaxant, which means it relaxes the smooth muscles that line the bronchioles in the lungs and allows them to expand, increasing lung capacity (FVC), while also increasing respiratory rate. It increases the contraction strength of muscles, allowing more power to be exerted. Finally, it makes a significant change to metabolism - it diverts the body from long-term to short(ish)-term metabolism. Smooth muscle relaxation means also that the smooth muscles lining the stomach and intestines, responsible for peristalsis (moving food along your innards), become less active, and your digestion slows down. In a fight, there’s no point in spending time working on your lunch which may become energy in a few hours at best. What’s needed is quick energy once the ‘flash’ energy stores of the body, adenosine triphosphate, stored in cells runs out (a couple of seconds). Adrenaline stimulates the process for this, called glyconeogenesis, which makes glucose out of glycogen, the passive storage material.
The other side of adrenaline is to prepare for injury: as a vasoconstrictor, it constricts blood vessels and thereby decreases bleeding (which is why you get lidocaine epi in minor dental surgery). Biology lesson over: back to 120 seconds. With the beginning of a conflict, your body goes on battle stations, and prepares for the fight.
The downside is that in 120 seconds or so, it will start to fizzle out, and not only does your body become less effective at fighting, it also becomes aware of that, consciously and sub-consciously. Consciously, you feel less ‘pumped up’. Adrenaline is anxiogenic, meaning that it may cause you to feel anxious and that may make you misinterpret innocuous things as threats - this clears up once adrenaline breaks down. Subconsciously, your mind will interpret signals of sudden weakness (suddenly decreased heart rate) and the feeling of exhaustion and being out of breath that befalls most people after a stressful situation, as a sign to maybe cut back on the aggression and posturing.
The lesson, then, is this: a lot of conflicts can be de-escalated by ‘adrenaline attrition’: you try to keep the other dude talking for two minutes. You manage it, you win. More than likely, the most pumped up attacker will after two minutes flick his utterly illegal balisong back together and decide he didn’t really want to stab you for looking at his girlfriend in the first place. At this point, buying him a drink may be a good idea.
That solves how the 120 seconds may save your life against Dick the Pissed Redneck Boyfriend with a Flick-knife. Really, however, it demonstrates a larger principle: readiness is a good thing, but it has an expiry date. For you, the lesson is to know when to get ready, because it will start a ticking clock and when it runs out, your window of opportunity to benefit from preparation will close and it will become a disadvantage real soon. The lesson if you’re O-3 or below is simple, know when to prepare. The lesson for O-4 and above, as well as the Washington and London REMFs political and military who like to meddle with field ops, should be equally clear: If you see someone’s op has reached preparation stage, stop fucking with it <-> if you want to fuck with a field op, for Chrissakes do it before it reaches preparation stage.
The broader lesson (COIN nuts skip all of the above and start here) for counterinsurgency warfare would be this: attriting the insurgents’ preparations can deliver massive tactical advantages. Ok, you say, that’s basically Bismarck era military wisdom, what’s new? Here’s the ‘new’ thing: let’s start adopting a workflow perspective to insurgency. I’d even suggest to bring in a few project managers and supply chain management experts to help (in the worst case, if this doesn’t work out, send them to teach Six Sigma to the Taliban - guaranteed defeat within a month).
A million ways have been tried to map insurgency and insurgent ops and analyse them. Let me suggest anew one: Gantt charts. Now I’m the last person who wants to burden intelligent, hard-working S-2s (all two of them*) with such management nonsense. It does, however, reveal something the whole network view should’ve revealed but was mainly hidden under Everestesque piles of bullshit: insurgency takes place inside a huge web of supply relationships, and the further you move from the centre of the web, the more bang you get from your buck.
The local terrorist leader may be heavily guarded, inaccessible and when you take him out, you’ll have a new one well before he’s buried, swearing bloody revenge. Chances are, he’ll be even crazier than the last ‘un. But how difficult is it to stage an op against the unwitting agricultural supplies storekeeper who sells to the front man who supplies the local IED knitting circle? The mobile phone dealer in Kabul who sells a hundred phones a day, and only one of which ends up in an IED killing soldiers in the Helmand? The way to catch a spider is not to shake the middle of the net - it will only run away on the sides. You close in from the edges of the net and cut it away until it has nowhere else to go.
A Gantt chart would facilitate identifying dependencies of operations. This can then traced to the end and mapped as a web of supply influx towards a particular insurgency op. Finding the most critical external dependencies and disrupting them gradually from the outside in is a good, cost-effective method of combating insurgency. The S-2 impact of this is to ask less what the local insurgency is planning: unless you have a top level source, you are not going to get reliable info, and if you do and act on it, you have an Atlantic Convoy/ULTRA problem. The new key question should be: what are the local fundie jundis buying? (apart from Toyota Land Cruisers - what’s it about the Land Cruiser that makes fundies love it? Does it come with a special compartment for the black turban?). It’s cheaper, less risky to assets and operatives alike, can be done by NOCs a lot better, and seeks info available to a very wide range of pretty low level assets.
So remember how to catch a spider. And how to deal with someone so his supply chain will have enough bottlenecks so that his 120 seconds are up before he can act. I could couch this in very Boydian terms, but I’m on a Boyd diet :) As the truly admirable work of Chet Richards bought mathematics and the then nascent field of mathematical operations research to bear on Boyd’s work, it’s time to see if some business management, supply chain, lean management ideas would assist with exploiting our enemies’ weaknesses.
And in the worst case, we can always sell the supply chain people to the fundies.
* This is a joke. I love S-2s, but I also love having a joke at their expense. They’re just too easy! Most of them, after having punched me out a few times, have learned to be ok with it. I’m sorry if you’re offended. I’ll buy you a Snappy Cow, ok?
I’m not a full-time COIN guy - occasionally, I actually do sensible stuff, to keep my mind clear. I’m a lawyer, and my specialisation is in dispute resolution - hence my interest in conflicts. The current crisis in the Senate, wittily nicknamed the ‘debt lock’, is one example of how not to resolve a conflict. How to resolve conflicts is pretty elusive. I’m more familiar with arbitral decision-making than with mediation, so I’ve asked a lot of mediators as to how they structure a conflict situation or a dispute in a way that it will be easier to resolve. Clearly, the picture that emerged showed that this is an art and not a precise science. So, neither mediators, nor myself, know the steps as to how to be successful at resolving every conflict. I have, however, learned a few excellent ways as to how not to resolve one:
- Build an emotional commitment towards your position. Whether this is ego, pride or pressure, don’t see the issue as a detached business transaction - see it as a medieval tournament with horses and pikes and the whole shebang, where you’re fighting for your pride, fighting to satisfy your ego or fighting to satisfy your superiors. Repeat to yourself that if you lose, you won’t just have lost a dispute, you would have been personally wounded.
- Make sure you let your position know, down to the most intricate details, right at the beginning. Good negotiators start with the most important framework points, ideally ones where agreement is relatively likely, and then go over to the details. Often, especially when the dispute involves many points, it is a practice by some negotiators or mediators to separate points of dispute into ‘day one’ and ‘day two’ stuff. Even if they could be dealt with in one day, half of it is shifted to the other day so once there is agreement on the truly important ‘day one’ issues, the parties go home with a sense of satisfaction, wake happy, have their sausages, egg, beans and orange juice, get clogged arteries but turn up to the negotiation of the nitty-gritty with a smile. Bad negotiators, on the other hand, whip out an infinite list of demands, and close by closing their folder, making a stern face and announcing that these are their demands, and they won’t budge. That effectively seeks to convert a genuine dispute into a diktat. It generally does not work, and in the long-term, it is counter-productive, even when the party laying down the diktat is in so strong a dominant position that it can afford to dictate to smaller partners, who still will have to accept. It makes one look like a bully, and no-one wants to trade with a bully.
- Be sure to know that if you lose, you’ll get a big beating at home. I’ve seen this in international negotiations by junior diplomats, who have been told that unless the results are favourable, they will get hell when they get home. Other than the fact that any boss who does that displays a total lack of leadership, people under this pressure are not going to be good negotiating partners. The pressure on politicians who are negotiating a matter as important as e.g. the budget, where it is evident that if they budge, they will be labelled as softies and may face losing their seat in the next elections, is the same. Add the usual political meanness and enmity to it, and you have situations like the debtlock.
- Be angry. Really angry. And mean. They’re not your partners with whom you work out a deal, they’re your enemies. The press pretty much created this atmosphere in the debtlock. In peace negotiations, this comes up, too. It’s really difficult to see people with whom you have been locked in battle a few weeks ago as partners in a deal. It’s not impossible, though, and well-trained diplomats don’t have this kind of selectivity towards negotiating partners.
- Make sure you negotiate. No-one does it as well as you. Even if you’re the CEO of a pipe making enterprise. Don’t ever get a professional negotiator or lawyer involved. This way, if you screw up, you won’t be covered by an indemnity insurance. Also, it’s clear that you’re born with a fantastic knowledge of how to negotiate successfully, whatever your actual job. So negotiate yourself. Bring yourself ever closer to that inevitable heart attack at 55, too.
- Make sure you don’t drink (water) during the negotiation, nibble like mad on whatever food is provided with an angry face and never, ever go for loo breaks. This way, the other side will definitely not see you as human. It’s a tiny thing, but you show a sort of fellow humanity. Sounds really silly, doesn’t it? Still, behaving like a human - drinking, eating very moderately if food is provided and going to the loo every now and then, humanises you. It also gives people a breather, especially tactical loo breaks at a time when you’re deadlocked. Ease up, let go of your pee and see how the issue looks with an empty bladder. Also, dehydration makes you stupid, tired and nervous, whereas over-eating on carbohydrate-rich conference nibbles, usually pretty salty, make you agitated and hostile. Just the condition you would want to be in if you would want a negotiation to fail, right?
- Make sure you negotiate until hell freezes over or you come to an agreement. Setting a deadline would accelerate the whole thing and focus people on the discussion and we wouldn’t want that if we’re about not resolving conflicts, right? iF there are multiple issues or sub-issues, it’s sometimes helpful to have negotiation map, which allocates time and sets small, informal time limits, to prevent time being up and all time being wasted on the intricacies of a minor point.
So, this is how not to resolve conflicts by negotiation. It’s a lot easier to be the critic than the man in the arena, of course, and negotiators don’t have an easy job. I don’t quite envy Reid or Boehner for having to work out the debtlock, and both obviously sit on a barrel of gunpowder. One of them will have to face their barrel blowing up and losing their position or even their seat if they ‘give in’. This atmosphere, for which mainly the media is at fault (which now fans the flames of a general ‘Washington sucks!’ sentiment) for presenting the issue as the battle for life and death and the future of America (the latter the second contributory factor, histrionic politicians, in particular Nancy Pelosi, who has made political histrionics to an art form of its own), is hostile to an agreement. What people forget is that compromises are born in a context. The context defines the attitude of the parties. Parties are, for instance, more likely to accept compromises with slight negative results in a brightly lit room - they feel pervaded by optimism that they’ll be able to overcome this setback. A lot of research in psychology went into dispute resolution, but by far not enough and by far not enough done by people who actually knew how this stuff worked. Create a context like the present one, and you guarantee failure. And that is the crucial 8th point: if you want to negotiate, don’t create a context hostile to an agreement <-> if you are in a context hostile to an agreement, stop negotiating: you’re wasting your own time. Clear up the battlefield and chat later.
This came to me last night, and so, it is tongue in cheek up to a point. Then again, everyone’s tongue is in(side) their cheeks most of the time, so…
The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) assembles a publication called the Red List, which lists the endangered and threatened species of the world. Some of it is staggering. Almost 30% of the world’s amphibians are some sort of endangered, with 7% critically so. About one fifth of all species of mammals are endangered, threatened or vulnerable. The entire list (which includes animals and plants but not ‘shrooms and bacteria) consists of a mind-blowing 40,000 entries. Clearly this whole endangered species lark is serious stuff.
Currently, efforts to deal with the problem have mainly consisted of hunting bans, breeding programmes and habitat preservation. The big impediment, as pretty much everywhere else, is money. There’s never enough (and that’s a fortiori true for environmental programmes, because their degree of costs waste is, compared to just about anything else other than defence procurement, mind-blowing). So here’s my proposed solution:
- Every species on earth has a binomial name. This is basically the taxonomist’s take on the simple genus - differentia way of defining schtuff. The first part, which describes the genus, isn’t up to change. The second part, however, is. And that may be everything on earth. The swordfish, for instance, is Xiphias gladius - Linnaeus aka Carl von Linne must have been really impressed by its sword, because both words mean ‘sword’, first in Greek, then in Latin. Other species, though, are often named after their discoverer. Yet another class is named after someone remarkable or famous - Jane Goodall and Steve Irwin being two folks commemorated in this way. And that’s our way out.
- So step one is: rename endangered species so the second part of the binomial name will make reference to a large corporation, preferably one that is in the oil/mining business and can be easily guilt-tripped/needs to have its envireputation (neologism FTW) scrubbed. Whether they want it or not. Goodbye Mountain gorilla (Gorilla beringei beringei), welcome Shell’s mountain gorilla (Gorilla beringei shell). The California condor (Gymnogyps californianus) is now Exxon’s condor (Gymnogyps exxonis). And so on.
- Step two: Let the companies in question know about their new species and hint at the shame that would accompany them if their trademark species kicked off for good.
- Step three: Watch a Netherlands Tulip Bulb Craze-esque bidding war erupt among large companies (especially in the same sector - it’s imperative to name as many species as possible after companies in the same sector who are direct competitors to each other), each trying to outbid the other in funnelling vast amounts of money into conservation efforts.
- Step four: Profit. That is, the animals will. By, arguably, being saved.
No, this isn’t about Huntington’s book. Rather, it is about an idea posted by @jstrevino today on twitter. I repeat his original tweet here:
On this A-10 thing, I’ll just say it: the USAF was better when it was the USAAC, subject to Army needs and demands.
An interesting idea. I am too much of a micro-manager and pragmatist to see the ‘wider issue’ here. In reality, the wider issue is somewhat of a non-issue - who runs the Air Force is a pretty insignificant question. Almost all actual combat action the USAF is currently doing is some sort of support of ground operations, as opposed to stand-alone air actions as we witnessed, e.g., in World War II, where air objectives were often completely separated from any co-occurring ground operation. Largely, this is a result of the ‘CAS model’, which is in turn a result of technological development. CAS became the keystone of live integration of ground and air ops. Joshua’s excellent point wouldn’t have arisen in World War II, when close air support and forward air control were nascent and embryonic at best. Today, though, they’re not only technologically developed, but also doctrinally. FAC, then, has merged air capabilities into ground doctrine. Fusion o’clock?
Well, that’s the big picture view. At this scale, I’m perfectly in agreement with Joshua Treviño and John Noonan (@noonanjo), who had some excellent remarks in this debate. My bickering is mainly ‘small-scale’ stuff.
- Ground and air forces always had a different self-image and a different culture. John described USAF as “more corporate than warrior”, and that’s probably true - USAF is like a large company with a relatively small operations department and a lot of ‘back office’ activity - R&D, admin, intel, blah blah. In that way, it reminds me a tiny bit of biotech companies who have small production output but large research background. Fusing them with companies that work the other way around (trying to facilitate the most production with the least expenditure on admin gumph) generally ended in tears, mainly in a culture clash way. I wouldn’t be surprised if the same problems came up after such a fusion. And this leads to my next point…
- Quite simply, time cannot be turned backwards. The argument that ‘the Army Air Corps worked pretty well’ is a large-scale argument, and really, it’s convincing. It shows that such cooperation is possible, much like the USMC is generally ok with being subordinated to naval officers who know precious little about anything involving solid land. USAF has been independent long enough to develop its own self-image and its importance (especially that of SAC) during the Cold War contributed to it. It also contributed to the growth of a tremendous number of egos - individual and corporate. Not that the Army doesn’t have its ego warriors. Mixing the two will not be funny.
- ‘Culture change’ is a bit of a buzzword today, but it applies here. Joshua Treviño’s tweet says that “USAF culture isn’t necessarily worth preserving”. That’s possibly true, and it’s one solution to the culture change question: totally eliminate USAF’s unique and somewhat corporate culture, change it to the army’s more disciplined and warrior-like culture. How that will go down with the flying part of the USAF I don’t know. Generally, putting young and agile men into fast aircraft that can unleash terrible amounts of firepower gives them a bit of attitude (up to and including Tailhook style stuff) that may not integrate too well with the Army mentality. The rest of USAF, though, will be the more difficult deal. The USAF is structured as a self-reliant unit, i.e. it has its own research, intel &c. capabilities. There are two ways to deal with this: merge them, i.e. have a joint Army-USAAC intel, R&D &c. unit, or have them coexist. The merger will basically end in a bitchfest where USAF people will do things the USAF way and get bitched at by Army people to do things the Army way. One thing this will not help is productivity. Keeping them separate helps that, but raises the problem of information transfer. The military is famous for many good things, but ease of communication inside is not one of those. Especially in intel, if a joint intel isn’t formed, communication between G2 and what used to be A2 will be essential. Do we trust in this? As much as from the big picture perspective the merger seems to be a good idea, it’s a leap of faith.
Ultimately, I don’t disagree in principle with Noonan and Treviño. I disagree with them that it can work out in practice - that the two branches are malleable enough to hold together, or, as Treviño appears to suggest, that the Air Force is malleable enough to leave behind its own culture and melt into the Army as a subordinate Corps. Such a transition may well take a generation or two of officers and enlisted men (though mainly the former). Can we currently afford it? That remains a question for the future, and one that will go with significant debate. And in that debate, I hope that the pragmatics and the details receive as much attention as they deserve, and aren’t completely dwarfed by the ‘big picture’ strategic ideas.
In general, the view of Aztec war that we profess is pretty schematic: kill, maim, sacrifice. The Aztecs were pretty good at things in and around war that we today abhor - including one of the largest mass murders in human history. So it was interesting to see a very different approach, one much closer to historical truth, emerge in this article, by Dr Zhivan Alach, a fellow at the SSI. Dr Alach is not a historian, he’s got a doctorate in security studies, so he really did perform well in the amateur history department.
Somewhat more interesting (and far shorter than Dr. Alach’s article at its 81-page somewhere-between-paper-and-monograph length) is this response to it by an anonymous author on the Kings of War website. Essentially, he dismantles Alach’s thesis piece by piece, and a lot of his points are valid. I would like to concentrate on one here.
Normally, an article that contains phrases like “the chauvinistic misdemeanour of reifying the West’s superiority to that of the savage Other” do not tend to endear themselves to me. This article is an exception: it is well-written and makes sense. Its main point: painting the military in the role of servant, not master, in warfare.
Now, war is a social act. That means we’ve got people running the show, and we’ve got a society who mandates those people to do violence on others, through the parliamentary ratification of the armed action (or whatever the local flavour of ratifying war is). The armed forces are, in this sense, mandated agents of society.
That’s the author’s view, and it makes sense. Up to a point. It fits with a liberal idea of keeping Colonel Blimps out of decision-making, and having them do what Whitehall and Westminster decide. The underlying fear of a militarist society and of the erosion of the liberal ideas held by the mainly ‘liberal’ political establishment (I use this in an extremely wide sense) versus the ideas of a more regimented military establishment, peek through this view (indeed he uses the spectre of militarism explicitly at one point). The military, quite simply, has a different mindset, and there’s nothing anyone can do about it (except getting rid of the whole place). It has some strange ideas, like that because I have two light blue stripes on my shoulders, you have to salute me if you only have one, and a fortiori so if all you have are chevrons. Sure, you say ‘good morning’ to the managing director before he does, but it’s definitely not in the company rulebook, if you do it it definitely cannot land you in a hearing for insubordination and it sure as heck isn’t reflected in the way you dress. Now, I am unwilling to go to the lengths of perceiving life in the armed forces the way Gene Hackman’s brilliantly played character in Crimson Tide, CPT Ramsey, did - to “preserve democracy, not to practice it’. But what is true is that the Whitehall bureaucrats and the Westminster establishment only get to chat over Chardonnay at Westminster hangouts about the liberal ideas and how the armed forces are living in some sort of almost ridiculous and satirical world out of Gilbert & Sullivan, a description that at times is supplemented by mentions of how ‘inhumane’ that life is, including pale-faced mentions of the practice of sergeants to scream at lower-ranking enlisted men (yes, really).
The problem here is, basically, a generational problem. The model of having military leaders shut up was sustainable in the time it worked. The author ignores a crucial fact. The time this system worked best was the second half of the 20th century. He completely ignores that most men, and men did at the time make out the vast majority of both Whitehall and Westminster, used to be soldiers at some time or another. They had a soldier’s perspective and a soldier’s experiences, without being soldiers themselves at the time. We had what Anthony Powell called the military philosophers. We don’t have them anymore. There is no draft, and the wars we fight affect a small class. How many in the Civil Service have served? Most of them go through ridiculous stuff like Fast Track straight into administrative positions in the civil service without having done and seen what they are actually administering. The article by the anonymous author made sense in a semi-militaristic society. That precisely was why there was no need for military men to speak up: those who made the decisions, with the democratic mandate, simply knew.
This is not the case today. As armed action has become increasingly complex, the number of people right south of the river who don’t think about a small rounded metal object you pay with when they hear a mention of COIN has precipitously sunk. Officers sit in small rooms and have to explain in kiddie terms what the heck it is they’re doing, and that’s the better variant - often enough, the stage of actually asking people doesn’t even happen.
The anonymous author denounces what Alach suggests as a militaristic daydream with an anachronistic feel. Quite the reverse. It is his ideas that are anachronistic and would have made good sense in 1951.
It’s 2011. That’s 60 years past.
Welcome to the new world.
[A] breakdown of just how much all those weapons programs that were cancelled in the last decade cost us:
Future Combat Systems (FCS) $18.1B
Comanche helicopter $7.9B
nPOESS satellite $5.8B
VH-71 Presidential Helicopter $3.7B
Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle (EFV) $3.3B
Transformational SATCOM (TSAT) $3.2B
Advanced SEAL Delivery System (ASDS) $0.6 B
Armed Reconnaissance Helicopter $0.5 B
Aerial Common Sensor $0.4 B
CG(X) next Generation Cruiser $0.2B